HSE Scientists Have Examined Potential Impact of Nuclear Power on Sustainable Development
Researchers at HSE University have developed a set of mathematical models to predict the impact of nuclear power on the Sustainable Development Index. If the share of nuclear power in the global energy mix increases to between 20% and 25%, the global Sustainable Development Index (SDI) is projected to grow by one-third by 2050. In scenarios where the share of nuclear power grows more slowly, the increase in the SDI is found to be lower. The study has been published in Nuclear Energy and Technology.
Climate change, disparities in living standards, energy shortages, and other challenges are driving humanity to seek solutions that can ensure sustainable development in the future. Some scientists believe that re-evaluating the role of nuclear power in the energy mix could be a key factor.
Researchers at HSE University have developed a set of mathematical models to predict how changes in the share of nuclear power could impact social, economic, and environmental indicators globally. To evaluate the impact of the energy mix, the researchers used the Sustainable Development Index (SDI), which measures progress toward achieving the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set by the United Nations in 2015: eradicating poverty, improving public health, ensuring quality education, preserving the environment, and more.
The calculations employed an interdisciplinary approach that incorporated several elements: intersystem interaction theory, management of key target indicators using a matrix of core competencies, and a vector interpretation of optimal management processes. This approach made it possible to account for the mutual influence of the systems selected for analysis, to identify factors that contribute to an increase in the index, and to visualise and evaluate the results.
The scientists examined three scenarios describing changes in the share of nuclear power (NP) in global energy consumption: a scenario with a significant decrease to 1-3%, a scenario with gradual growth to 7-10%, and a scenario with rapid expansion to 63-68%. Each scenario was analysed considering different trends: either a rapid increase in the share of renewable energy sources coupled with a decrease in traditional hydrocarbons, or the continued use of fossil fuels alongside slow growth in renewable energy.
According to the forecasts, the most effective strategy would be to increase the share of nuclear power to 20-25% of total global energy consumption by 2050. This increase could reduce carbon dioxide emissions, boost the Sustainable Development Index by 36%, and raise it to 0.7–0.75 from its current value of 0.55. The scientists note that while an economic downturn is expected in the initial stages of implementing such a scenario due to the need for technology development, the indicator will eventually increase.
Сo-author of the paper, Professor at the HSE Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs
'The proposed advanced development scenario occupies an intermediate position between the highly dynamic development and slow growth scenarios. It involves increasing the share of nuclear generation by nearly five times compared to current levels. However, due to existing constraints, it falls short of the highly dynamic development scenario by a factor of 2.5.'
In the scenario where the share of nuclear power is reduced to 1-3%, the Sustainable Development Index declines. The researchers attribute this to rising energy costs, which will lead to job losses, reduced production, and a decline in well-being for the population. Some developed countries may improve their economic positions, but this will likely come at the expense of lowering living standards in developing countries and increasing the proportion of people living below the poverty line. Moreover, this approach does not address the issue of carbon dioxide emissions. The projected SDI for this scenario is estimated to be between 0.25 and 0.3 by 2050.
In the scenario where the share of nuclear power grows slowly to 7-10%, the index will initially increase but is expected to decline by 2050. The scientists explain that the increase in energy consumption and depletion of natural resources will drive up energy prices, and the share of nuclear power will be insufficient to stabilise these prices. With this approach, the SDI is projected to range from 0.45 to 0.5.
The scenario of a highly dynamic increase in the share of nuclear power to 63-68% requires substantial financial investments in the early stages of expanding nuclear generation capacity. This could potentially lead to a redistribution of funds, underfunding of certain industries, and, as a result, a decline in the index during the initial decades. The SDI for this scenario is projected to be between 0.85 and 0.90 by 2050. However, this scenario is considered unfeasible due to existing resource constraints.
'Given the increasing energy demands, the need to address inequality and unfair distribution of resources, and the desire to reduce the environmental footprint, our study underscores the importance of continued support for nuclear power technologies to enhance the SDI,' comments Anastasia Galkina, PhD in Economics from the HSE Doctoral School of Economics and co-author of the paper. 'Our ideas have already been incorporated into Rosatom's strategy for advancing nuclear power in Russia.'
See also:
Russian Scientists Develop New Compound for Treating Aggressive Tumours
A team of Russian researchers has synthesised a novel compound for boron neutron capture therapy (BNCT), a treatment for advanced cancer that uses the boron-10 isotope. The compound exhibits low toxicity, excellent water solubility, and eliminates the need for administering large volumes. Most importantly, the active substance reaches the tumour with minimal impact on healthy tissues. The study was published in the International Journal of Molecular Sciences shortly before World Cancer Day, observed annually on February 4.
Scientists Discover Link Between Brain's Structural Features and Autistic Traits in Children
Scientists have discovered significant structural differences in the brain's pathways, tracts, and thalamus between children with autism and their neurotypical peers, despite finding no functional differences. The most significant alterations were found in the pathways connecting the thalamus—the brain's sensory information processing centre—to the temporal lobe. Moreover, the severity of these alterations positively correlated with the intensity of the child's autistic traits. The study findings have been published in Behavioural Brain Research.
Earnings Inequality Declining in Russia
Earnings inequality in Russia has nearly halved over the past 25 years. The primary factors driving this trend are rising minimum wages, regional economic convergence, and shifts in the returns on education. Since 2019, a new phase of this process has been observed, with inequality continuing to decline but driven by entirely different mechanisms. These are the findings made by Anna Lukyanova, Assistant Professor at the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences, in her new study. The results have been published in the Journal of the New Economic Association.
Russian Physicists Discover Method to Increase Number of Atoms in Quantum Sensors
Physicists from the Institute of Spectroscopy of the Russian Academy of Sciences and HSE University have successfully trapped rubidium-87 atoms for over four seconds. Their method can help improve the accuracy of quantum sensors, where both the number of trapped atoms and the trapping time are crucial. Such quantum systems are used to study dark matter, refine navigation systems, and aid in mineral exploration. The study findings have been published in the Journal of Experimental and Theoretical Physics Letters.
HSE Scientists Develop Application for Diagnosing Aphasia
Specialists at the HSE Centre for Language and Brain have developed an application for diagnosing language disorders (aphasia), which can result from head injuries, strokes, or other neurological conditions. AutoRAT is the first standardised digital tool in Russia for assessing the presence and severity of language disorders. The application is available on RuStore and can be used on mobile and tablet devices running the Android operating system.
HSE Researchers Discover Simple and Reliable Way to Understand How People Perceive Taste
A team of scientists from the HSE Centre for Cognition & Decision Making has studied how food flavours affect brain activity, facial muscles, and emotions. Using near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS), they demonstrated that pleasant food activates brain areas associated with positive emotions, while neutral food stimulates regions linked to negative emotions and avoidance. This approach offers a simpler way to predict the market success of products and study eating disorders. The study was published in the journal Food Quality and Preference.
Russian Scientists Demonstrate How Disorder Contributes to Emergence of Unusual Superconductivity
Researchers at HSE University and MIPT have investigated how the composition of electrons in a superconductor influences the emergence of intertype superconductivity—a unique state in which superconductors display unusual properties. It was previously believed that intertype superconductivity occurs only in materials with minimal impurities. However, the scientists discovered that the region of intertype superconductivity not only persists but can also expand in materials with a high concentration of impurities and defects. In the future, these superconductors could contribute to the development of highly sensitive sensors and detectors. The study has been published in Frontiers of Physics.
HSE Scientists Take Important Step Forward in Development of 6G Communication Technologies
Researchers at HSE MIEM have successfully demonstrated the effective operation of a 6G wireless communication channel at sub-THz frequencies. The device transmits data at 12 Gbps and maintains signal stability by automatically switching when blocked. These metrics comply with international 6G standards. An article published on arXiv, an open-access electronic repository, provides a description of certain elements of the system.
AI vs AI: Scientists Develop Neural Networks to Detect Generated Text Insertions
A research team, including Alexander Shirnin from HSE University, has developed two models designed to detect AI-generated insertions in scientific texts. The AIpom system integrates two types of models: a decoder and an encoder. The Papilusion system is designed to detect modifications through synonyms and summarisation by neural networks, using one type of models: encoders. In the future, these models will assist in verifying the originality and credibility of scientific publications. Articles describing the Papilusion and AIpom systems have been published in the ACL Anthology Digital Archive.
Acoustic Battles for the Harem: How the Calls of Siberian Wapiti Reveal Their Status and Individuality
Researchers at HSE University, Lomonosov Moscow State University, and the A.N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution of the Russian Academy of Sciences have studied the distinctive vocalisations of Siberian wapiti (Cervus canadensis sibiricus) stags during the peak of the mating season, when males produce rutting calls (bugles) to attract females (hinds) and deter rivals. The scientists have discovered how the acoustic parameters of these rutting calls reflect the stag's status—whether he currently holds a harem or is still attempting to acquire one—as well as his individual characteristics. The study has been published in Journal of Zoology.